英国媒体：中国能“和平”崛起吗？(推荐回贴中的段段英汉对照)

屈联西

First, the “positive sum” view wins out. Awareness of the absence of any deep ideological conflict, of mutual economic dependence, of a shared planetary destiny and of the impossibility of war in a nuclear age force adequate levels of global co-operation. For this to happen there must also be a profound commitment to co-operation, not much evident recently in such areas as climate change or global imbalances。第一，“正和”观点胜出。假如各方意识到，相互之间并不存在任何深刻的意识形态冲突，彼此经济上互为依赖，大家必须共同面对这个星球的命运，在核时代不可能爆发战争，那么就有望促成可观的全球合作。要实现这种局面，各方也必须作出深刻的合作承诺。但近期在气候变化、全球失衡等领域看不到这种势头。
　　Second, the “negative sum” view wins out. Power is relative. The incumbent and the rising powers compete for dominance. Resources, similarly, are finite. In this world, economic disarray and the struggle for scarce resources lead to a retreat from globalisation, while balance of power politics dominate international relations. We may see the emergence of a balancing coalition against China, consisting, at the least, of the US, Europe, India and Japan, possibly joined by other powers。第二，“负和”观点得胜。权力是相对的。老牌大国和新兴大国竞逐主导地位。资源同样是有限的。在这个世界上，经济混乱和对稀缺资源的争夺将导致全球化倒退，而均势政治将主导国际关系。或许会出现一个以制衡中国为宗旨的联盟，成员至少包括美国、欧洲、印度和日本，其它国家也有可能加入。
　　Third, we muddle through, with a mixture of the above two approaches: globalisation and a degree of economic co-operation survive, but classic balance of power politics become more significant, as China, in turn, becomes more assertive of its rank in the world system. This, roughly speaking, was the world before the first world war - not an encouraging precedent。第三，我们姑且设想一种混合了上述两种情景的结局：全球化和一定程度的全球合作“幸存下来”，但随着中国对自身在国际体系中的地位变得更加自信，典型的均势政治将变得更加重要。这大体上就是第一次世界大战前的局势——可不是一个鼓舞人心的先例。

屈联西

　　These are just preliminary thoughts on what is surely the fundamental challenge of our era and the one on which solution of all other challenges depends。这些不过是关于我们这个时代必将面临的一个根本挑战的初步想法。我们如何应对所有其它挑战，都将取决于这个根本挑战。
　　What do readers think will and should happen to manage this great transition?在应对上述大转变的过程中可能发生什么，应该怎么做，诸位读者有何看法？