Bloc confrontation

陈小将

Chen Hong, executive director of the Asia Pacific Studies Center at East China Normal University in Shanghai, said the signing of a defense deal and the intensifying military cooperation between Japan and the Philippines represent risky steps that fuel bloc confrontation and undermine peace and stability in the region.

The Japan-Philippines military logistics agreement carries more symbolic weight than practical defense value, Chen said. While it falls short of a formal military alliance, it institutionalizes logistical support and service exchanges between their armed forces, facilitating mutual assistance and significantly enhancing their ability to coordinate actions during times of crisis, he said.

"Such military maneuvers could trigger a chain reaction of arms races and military confrontation, significantly increasing the risk of miscalculation and unintended escalation," he said.

Minister Koizumi's emphasis on expanding Japan-US deterrence capabilities in Okinawa and the southwestern direction underscored Tokyo's heavy reliance on Washington for security, Chen said.

"By strengthening forward deployments and increasing its military presence, Japan aims to enhance its strategic weight within the US-Japan alliance. However, this 'deterrence-for-security' logic objectively intensifies Japan's security dilemma, making it more likely to be drawn into the front lines of regional conflicts," he said.

Shakeel Ahmad Ramay, CEO of the Asian Institute of Eco-civilization, Research, and Development in Pakistan, said Japan is using the "China threat" as a pretext, while its real objective is to expand military spending and revive its militaristic past.

Japan has attempted to redefine its security role by constructing a "threat narrative", Ramay said. On the one hand, it frequently packages its military expansion in terms such as a "severe security environment", a "rules-based order" and "freedom of navigation", seeking to manufacture a consensus around the "China threat".

On the other hand, he said, constrained by its own strategic capacity, Japan has increasingly encouraged, instigated and pushed the US to deepen involvement in regional affairs, while courting countries such as the Philippines to form a multilayered network of quasi-alliances.

"In essence, this approach reflects an effort to offset Japan's strategic anxiety through external forces rather than to manage differences through dialogue and cooperation," he said.

Chen said, "Repeated experience shows that stability in the Asia-Pacific does not stem from the stacking of military alliances, but from mutual respect, dialogue, consultation and shared development under the multilateral frameworks, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations."

For regional countries, he added, maintaining strategic autonomy, rejecting bloc confrontation, and promoting security through cooperation remain the most rational choices to prevent the Asia-Pacific from sliding into a cycle of instability.