如何防止机器人抢走你的工作

屈联西

　　核心提示：团队的力量会是非常强大的，能集中不可能来自任何单个个人的各种想法和改进意见。但是团队协作也有成本：必须要进行协调、开会并达成共识。
　　How to Keep Robots from Taking Your Job
　　如何防止机器人抢走你的工作
　　Slowly but surely， the machines are stealing our jobs. Already there are assembly lines manned by mechanical arms， toll booths overseen by wireless receivers， and a retail store in the heart of Silicon Valley staffed entirely by telepresence robots.
　　机器正在偷走我们的工作，这个过程缓慢却毋庸置疑。现在已经有些装配线上使用机械手臂，有收费站由无线接收器值守，而硅谷中心一个零售店内的工作人员全部是远程监控的机器人。
　　This is only the beginning. As artificial intelligence improves， even the most highly educated Americans may find themselves losing out to computers — think doctors replaced by diagnostic machines.
　　这才仅仅是一个开始。随着人工智能的提高，即使受过最高等教育的美国人可能也会发现自己输给了计算机——想想被诊断机器取代的医生吧。
　　Where to hide， then， if you can't rely on brainpower to protect you? One suggestion， from a recent analysis of the changing job market， is to hone your social skills. Over the last 30 years， job growth has been strongest in those fields that require high levels of social intelligence.Are social skills really the key to outlasting machines?
　　那么，如果不能靠智力保护自己，我们该藏身何处?最近一项有关就业市场变化的分析给出的一个建议是，锻炼你的社交技巧。过去30多年来，在需要高水平社交智慧的领域内，就业增长势头最为强劲。社交技巧真的是战胜机器的关键吗?
　　A lot more research needs to be done before this point is settled， but recent work by Harvard economist David Deming has found that social skills seem to provide a big advantage.
　　要确定这一点还需要进行更多的研究，但是哈佛经济学家戴维·戴明最近的研究发现，社交技巧似乎能提供一个巨大优势。
　　Going back to 1980，the most vulnerable jobs have been the ones built around narrow， repetitive routines. At first，that meant mostly low- or medium-wage jobs，including in manufacturing or clerical work. But high-skill，high-routine workers are now losing ground as well，in areas like engineering and accounting.
　　回顾20世纪80年代，当时最不保险的工作是那些涉及面窄、重复性的程式化工作。首先，这基本上意味着低收入或者中等收入的工作，其中包括制造业或者文书性工作。但是，如今从事高技能、高程式化工作的人也在节节败退，例如在工程和会计等领域。
　　Fields that require regular interactions with other people and greater use of social skills have been much more resilient， particularly fields which combine high social intelligence with other cognitive skills.
　　需要经常与其他人交流并更好地运用社交技巧的领域一直更有弹性，尤其是那些将高水平的社交智慧和其他认知技巧结合起来的领域。
　　This includes jobs like consulting， which involve lots of teamwork and collective problem solving. Industries like that have seen both strong job growth and widespread wage gains， a marked contrast to other areas of the economy.
　　这包括咨询工作，它需要大量的团队协作，需要集体解决问题。这种行业出现了强劲的就业增长和普遍加薪，与经济的其他领域形成了鲜明对比。
　　What makes social skills so valuable?
　　社交技巧为何如此宝贵?
　　Social intelligence is one great advantage humans have over machines—at least for now.
　　社交智慧是人类相比机器拥有的一大优势，至少眼下还是如此。
　　Computers are already quite good at interpreting problems and devising solutions， skills that have helped them best the world's top Jeopardy players and beat the greatest chess masters.
　　计算机已经十分擅长解释问题并设计解决方案，这些技能帮助它们打败了世界顶级的“危险边缘”游戏玩家，并战胜了最了不起的象棋大师。
　　But social interaction is a task computers are further from mastering， leaving the field clear for humans to excel.
　　但是，社交是计算机远未掌握的一种技能，这使得人类可以在这个领域出类拔萃。
　　And social skills are something businesses constantly rely on. That's obvious in the service sector，where interacting with customers is the core activity. But it's true most anywhere you find people working in collaborative teams.
　　此外，社交技能还是企业永远依赖的一种东西。这一点在服务行业内显而易见，与顾客交流是这个行业的核心活动。但几乎凡是以协作性团队形式开展工作的地方皆如此。
　　Teams can be quite powerful， pooling together ideas and refinements unlikely to come from any single individual. But there's a cost to teamwork： You have to coordinate，have meetings， and come to consensus.
　　团队的力量会是非常强大的，能集中不可能来自任何单个个人的各种想法和改进意见。但是团队协作也有成本：必须要进行协调、开会并达成共识。
　　Employees with good social skills can minimize these costs by smoothing the coordination process. Not only can they distribute responsibilities in a way that ensures each team member has an appropriate role， but they can also “trade tasks，” as Deming emphasizes， easily switching roles if they get stuck.
　　有着良好社交技巧的员工可以通过理顺协调过程而将这种成本降到最低。他们不仅能够合理分配职责以确保每个团队成员都扮演合适的角色，而且还可以像戴明强调的那样“交换任务”，在行动受阻时轻松地调换角色。
　　Will the machines ultimately win?
　　机器最终会获胜吗?
　　Despite many suggestive anecdotes， the robot takeover is actually unfolding very slowly，if at all.
　　尽管有许多充满提示性的趣闻轶事，机器人的接管事实上进展得非常缓慢，如果真有这种接管的话。
　　Were the robots already here， you'd expect to see a spike in economic productivity — because with machine help， people should be able to make more stuff. But productivity has been relatively low in recent years， which is something of a puzzle.
　　如果机器人已经接管的话，你会看到生产率大幅提高——因为在机器的帮助下，人们应当能够生产更多的东西。但是，近年来生产率一直相对较低，这有些令人费解。
　　Still， with computers getting faster and more capable every day， it's entirely possible that machines will someday perform most every job — for better or worse， depending on how we choose to distribute the gains of the robot-run world， and whether we find satisfying things to do with our work-free lives.
　　尽管如此，随着计算机一天比一天快、一天比一天能干，完全有可能某一天机器会承担几乎所有工作——不管结果是好是坏，这取决于我们选择如何分配这个机器人掌控的世界带来的收益，以及我们是否能够在不为工作所累的生活中找到令自己满足的事情去做。
　　Until that time， if you want to have the best chance of holding your ground against the robots， it may be time to put aside the books and work on your social and non-cognitive skills. That's one area where humans still have a comparative advantage.
　　在此之前，如果你希望有最大把握在机器人面前守住阵地的话，现在或许该把书本放到一边而努力提高自己的社交和非认知技巧了。这是人类仍然拥有相对优势的一个领域。